2007): “A Structural Model of Turnout and Voting in Multiple Elections,” mimeo

In this paper, we propose a unified approach to study participation and voting in multiple elections. The theoretical framework combines an “uncertain-voter” model of turnout with a spatial model of voting behavior. We apply our frame-work to study turnout and voting in U.S. national (presidential and congres-sional) elections, and structurally estimate the model using individual-level data for the 2000 elections. The estimated model replicates the patterns of absten-tion, selective abstention, split-ticket voting, and straight-ticket voting observed in the data. We also quantify the relationships between observed individual characteristics and unobserved citizens ’ ideological preferences, information, and civic duty. Finally, we assess the effects of policies that may increase citizens’ information and sense of civic duty on their turnout and voting behavior